Interest rates have gotten REALLY Interesting
Interest rates continue to be a mystery. The Federal Reserve Board (The Fed) is trying hard to raise interest rates on government securities. They are meeting headwinds for two reasons.
First, the economic mandates that The Fed is tasked to use as guidance, inflation and unemployment, aren’t helping them raise rates. The Fed is struggling to get to the targeted 2% inflation rate. A large part of the problem is that oil prices are at historic lows. But there are other areas where prices are also not hitting the 2% mark (consumer goods, food). Unfortunately, there’s a good chance inflation will be like a clog in a pipe, water will resist getting through until suddenly the clog works it way out with a gush.
Unemployment, while in its target range doesn’t feel like it. This is partly due to many people who would like to be in the market have given up and aren’t counted. And people who would like full time work are struggling with part time jobs. There has been improvements but the progress is very slow.
The other reason for headwinds against interest rates increases is the world continues to pour money into US bonds. The US seems to be one of the few stable countries in the world and the world’s perennial favorite “safe haven” is the 10 year US Treasury Bond. Even if the Fed raises rates, with demand for US bonds going up, the price goes up pushing the rate down since bond rates go down when prices go up.
While The Fed raised rates in December and have said they plan to continue raising rates, they will struggle to actually make that a reality.
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